Monthly Newsletter – September 2026

DEAL OF THE MONTH: GRAB X ATOME

• Grab agreed on 15 September to buy 60% of Atome Financial for USD1.49bn in cash, implying a c. USD2.5bn equity value, with closing expected by 3Q27
• Atome adds a profitable lender with a USD1bn loan book and 25m users, while Grab's USD2.5bn of digital-bank deposits could cut its funding costs
• Shares fell c. 10% on the announcement, as key deal financials are undisclosed and Phase 2 pricing means Grab could pay for synergies it creates

BY THE NUMBERS

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Southeast Asia leads in terms of total deal value, driven by major debt financing for data centers and AI-related transactions, while the Middle East remained the most active market by deal count even as the IMF cut Saudi Arabia's 2026 growth forecast to a 3.3% contraction
• AI infrastructure is increasingly turning to bank debt, led by Zankore's up to USD3.1bn GPU facility and Indonet's USD530m loan, despite these assets having shorter lives than conventional infrastructure
• Large IPOs are returning, with Mynt raising c. USD970m in the largest Philippine listing (c. 80% secondary) and Dangote opening Africa's largest at c. USD1.6bn

DEAL OF THE MONTH: GRAB X ATOME

THE DEAL

Grab agreed on 15 September to acquire 60% of Atome Financial for USD1.49bn in cash, implying a c. USD2.5bn equity value. USD1.23bn will be paid to existing shareholders and USD260m will be invested as growth capital; closing is expected by 3Q27, subject to regulatory approval.

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Atome operates across five Southeast Asian markets, with c. 25m cumulative users, more than 30,000 merchant brands and a c. USD1bn gross loan portfolio.¹

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Phase 2 will value the remaining 40% using a formula weighted 75% to 13.0x annualized adjusted EBITDA and 25% to 2.5x annualized revenue, subject to a USD2.0bn floor and USD4.5bn cap.

WHY IT MATTERS

Immediate lending scale. Atome's c. USD1bn loan book would increase Grab's combined portfolio, excluding Superbank, from c. USD1.6bn to c. USD2.6bn. Management expects consumer cash-loan balances to increase more than 16x and BNPL and card balances by more than 4x.

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Grab's loan book has grown 6.4x since 2022, but Financial Services remained loss-making in 2025

Financial Services revenue, adjusted EBITDA and period-end loan book, 2021-2025, in USDm

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Broader distribution and underwriting. Atome adds higher-ticket retail categories, more than 30,000 merchant relationships and eight years of credit-scoring data. Only 1% of Grab's 138m annual users currently borrow through its platform, leaving room to cross-sell BNPL, cash loans and cards.

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Potentially lower funding costs. Grab's digital banks held USD2.5bn of customer deposits as of June 2026, which could replace part of Atome's third-party funding. The benefit may be limited in Thailand and the Philippines, where Grab lacks a licensed banking subsidiary.

OUR VIEW

The strategic fit is credible as Atome gives Grab exposure to larger-ticket spending categories that are not naturally served by mobility and delivery.

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Limited valuation disclosure against the backdrop of an acquisition spree fuels investor concerns over capital discipline. Grab has not disclosed Atome's standalone revenue or adjusted EBITDA, preventing a meaningful assessment of the acquisition multiple. Grab's shares fell c. 10% during the week of the announcement despite the accompanying buyback.

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Grab may pay for value it creates. Cross-selling and cheaper funding could increase Atome's earnings before Phase 2 but would also increase the consideration for the remaining 40%.

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The Phase 2 formula creates a potential measurement-period incentive. With 75% of valuation based on six months of annualized adjusted EBITDA, slowing originations could reduce upfront ECL provisions and temporarily lift earnings, depending on the agreed EBITDA adjustments.

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For more information on the transaction, see the SEC filing and Grab's announcement.

MARKET PULSE: SEPTEMBER 2026

September 2026 recorded 104 transactions worth USD19.8bn across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia.² TMT (USD11.0bn) and Infrastructure & Energy (USD5.6bn) accounted for 84% of total disclosed value. Activity remained concentrated, with 22 transactions of USD250m or more representing 84% of the market.

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Southeast Asia overtakes the Middle East by value, but the Middle East remains the more active market

Disclosed transaction value and number of transactions^a, by geography in September 2026

Note: a. Median figure is calculated only on deals with disclosed value.
Sources: S&P Capital IQ, Index Partners’ research and analysis

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September deal activity reached c. USD20bn, driven by a handful of large technology and infrastructure transactions

Disclosed transaction value and number of transactions, by sector in September 2026

Sources: S&P Capital IQ, Index Partners’ research and analysis

¹ Unaudited figures as of and for the six months ended 30 June 2026. Atome’s gross loan portfolio is the total outstanding amount across all loan products (current up to 90 days past due) on a gross basis, before provisions.
² Covers all transactions recorded in S&P Capital IQ, supplemented by additional research and analysis across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia, with no sector exclusions. Coverage is not exhaustive as some transactions are never publicly disclosed, and Capital IQ may record or update others some time after the transaction date, so figures are subject to revision.
³ Applies to all amounts in Notable Transactions. Where a transaction’s own announcement states a USD figure, that figure is used as disclosed; otherwise, amounts are converted at market rates as at 28 September 2026: PHP62.398, NGN1,328, and SGD1.2783 per USD, and EUR1 = USD1.1373.